Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 798 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 798 CLT 07:00 → EWR 08:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 997 CLT 18:44 → EWR 20:42 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 798 United Flight history →	CLT 07:00	EWR 08:59	5%	3%	1.3%	90%
AA 1707 American Flight history →	CLT 08:19	EWR 10:18	10%	4%	1.5%	87%
YX 3427 Republic	CLT 09:54	EWR 11:57	10%	3%	2.3%	no record
AA 1697 American Flight history →	CLT 10:43	EWR 12:41	15%	6%	1.4%	87%
YX 3649 Republic	CLT 10:58	EWR 13:01	15%	5%	2.3%	no record
YX 3627 Republic	CLT 13:26	EWR 15:28	24%	7%	2.2%	no record
YX 3428 Republic	CLT 16:00	EWR 18:02	32%	10%	2.3%	no record
UA 3468 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:51	EWR 19:59	35%	11%	2.7%	68%
AA 1330 American Flight history →	CLT 16:29	EWR 18:28	37%	18%	1.3%	66%
AA 2794 American Flight history →	CLT 20:06	EWR 22:12	39%	15%	1.3%	61%
AA 997 American	CLT 18:44	EWR 20:42	42%	16%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON