Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1419 at 08:21 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1419 CLT 08:21 → FLL 10:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1148 CLT 15:10 → FLL 17:16 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1419 American Flight history →	CLT 08:21	FLL 10:30	9%	2%	0.7%	92%
B6 848 JetBlue Flight history →	CLT 06:50	FLL 08:56	11%	5%	1.1%	85%
AA 2585 American	CLT 10:50	FLL 12:57	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2945 American Flight history →	CLT 20:08	FLL 22:15	21%	7%	1.1%	75%
AA 2397 American Flight history →	CLT 15:25	FLL 17:34	26%	7%	0.9%	62%
F9 1983 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 18:41	FLL 20:50	29%	12%	2.4%	62%
B6 1148 JetBlue Flight history →	CLT 15:10	FLL 17:16	35%	13%	1.3%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON