tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1384 at 12:03 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1384 American CLT 12:03 GRR 14:05 17% 6% 0.9% no record
AA 676 American Flight history → CLT 19:13 GRR 21:15 28% 10% 1.2% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547 6h 13m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:45 → ORD 08:01UA 1304 2h 36m Chicago ORD 10:37 → GRR 12:50UA 1297 6h 05m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058 4h 55m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:53 → GRR 12:24AA 3167 6h 39m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405 1h 08m Detroit DTW 08:50 → GRR 09:54DL 3500 · flown by SkyWest 3h 54m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → CLT 15:02 → ORD 16:20UA 3491 · flown by Republic 3h 52m Chicago ORD 20:12 → GRR 22:18UA 2472 7h 16m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → CLT 13:01 → ORD 14:16AA 2530 2h 58m Chicago ORD 17:14 → GRR 19:24AA 4729 · flown by Republic 6h 23m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:11 → LGA 09:10AA 2036 1h 08m New York LGA 10:18 → GRR 12:28AA 4775 · flown by Republic 5h 17m 89% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CLT 11:50 → LGA 13:50DL 5051 · flown by Endeavor 55m New York LGA 14:45 → GRR 17:07DL 5104 · flown by Endeavor 5h 17m 73% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON