Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4147 CLT 20:11 → GSO 21:01 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest MQ 3684 CLT 17:30 → GSO 18:20 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4147 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 20:11	GSO 21:01	19%	5%	0.9%	86%
AA 3133 American	CLT 15:41	GSO 16:39	21%	7%	1.1%	no record
MQ 3684 Envoy	CLT 17:30	GSO 18:20	24%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 5793 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:25	GSO 08:30	8%	3%	0.0%	92%
AA 5796 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:12	GSO 12:17	11%	4%	0.0%	89%
AA 5797 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:41	GSO 15:46	18%	7%	0.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON