Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5524 CLT 20:35 → GSP 21:30 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time Riskiest AA 2762 CLT 18:10 → GSP 19:04 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5524 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:35	GSP 21:30	18%	7%	1.0%	55%
AA 5440 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 15:53	GSP 16:42	19%	7%	1.0%	70%
AA 2762 American Flight history →	CLT 18:10	GSP 19:04	21%	7%	1.0%	73%
AA 5802 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:07	GSP 12:14	6%	0%	0.0%	94%
AA 5799 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:05	GSP 10:12	11%	3%	0.0%	89%
AA 5805 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:05	GSP 14:07	13%	9%	1.4%	87%
AA 6131 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:40	GSP 15:42	31%	7%	1.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON