Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OH 5490 at 08:24 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day OH 5490 CLT 08:24 → IAD 10:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1954 CLT 17:37 → IAD 19:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5490 PSA	CLT 08:24	IAD 10:00	7%	3%	0.9%	no record
OH 5154 PSA	CLT 10:23	IAD 11:59	10%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 5447 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:10	IAD 17:44	16%	7%	1.2%	75%
AA 1954 American	CLT 17:37	IAD 19:11	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 6279 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 06:00	IAD 07:29	8%	5%	2.6%	92%
UA 4012 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 10:27	IAD 11:55	15%	5%	0.0%	85%
UA 3998 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 19:44	IAD 21:20	18%	8%	5.5%	82%
UA 6203 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:53	IAD 16:30	23%	10%	1.4%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON