Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2445 at 08:19 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2445 CLT 08:19 → IAH 09:57 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 2395 CLT 12:16 → IAH 13:56 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2445 American Flight history →	CLT 08:19	IAH 09:57	12%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 398 American	CLT 12:42	IAH 14:20	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2935 American Flight history →	CLT 18:41	IAH 20:33	20%	8%	0.8%	62%
AA 1840 American Flight history →	CLT 20:45	IAH 22:27	20%	8%	0.8%	71%
F9 2395 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 12:16	IAH 13:56	25%	8%	1.0%	62%
UA 6236 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:48	IAH 13:34	10%	4%	0.9%	90%
UA 4020 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 17:00	IAH 18:58	20%	13%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON