Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5416 CLT 12:13 → ILM 13:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2826 CLT 20:29 → ILM 21:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5416 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 12:13	ILM 13:19	11%	3%	1.0%	85%
AA 2413 American	CLT 13:40	ILM 14:51	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2105 American Flight history →	CLT 17:15	ILM 18:27	19%	7%	0.9%	74%
AA 2826 American Flight history →	CLT 20:29	ILM 21:35	20%	7%	0.8%	71%
AA 5822 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:15	ILM 12:33	12%	7%	1.6%	88%
AA 5809 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:05	ILM 14:19	14%	2%	0.0%	86%
AA 5820 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:20	ILM 10:38	18%	3%	0.0%	82%
AA 6116 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 16:24	ILM 17:41	29%	13%	1.4%	71%
AA 5823 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:36	ILM 15:50	32%	10%	0.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON