Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1410 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1410 CLT 08:15 → IND 09:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3087 CLT 19:23 → IND 21:07 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1410 American	CLT 08:15	IND 09:59	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1589 American Flight history →	CLT 12:27	IND 14:09	16%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 1399 American	CLT 16:24	IND 18:07	23%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 3087 American Flight history →	CLT 19:23	IND 21:07	27%	8%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON