Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 08:40, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Jackson on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1175 American Flight history →	CLT 08:54	JAC 11:11	11%	3%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 28m Denver	DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537	8h 45m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 18:10 → JAC 20:04DL 315	7h 42m	98%	82%
United Details →	CLT 06:45 → ORD 08:01UA 1304	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 09:03 → JAC 11:19UA 2176	6h 34m	92%	75%
American Details →	CLT 09:42 → ORD 11:00AA 1038	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 13:26 → JAC 15:46AA 2611	8h 04m	97%	73%
American Details →	CLT 07:26 → DFW 09:14AA 1005	3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:12 → JAC 14:59AA 1883	9h 33m	100%	70%
United Details →	CLT 13:06 → ORD 14:30UA 3442 · flown by Republic	2h 13m Chicago	ORD 16:43 → JAC 19:05UA 1987	7h 59m	94%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON