Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1925 at 10:41 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1925 CLT 10:41 → JAX 12:09 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1999 CLT 15:49 → JAX 17:14 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1925 American Flight history →	CLT 10:41	JAX 12:09	12%	4%	10.1%	81%
AA 1466 American	CLT 12:41	JAX 14:09	17%	5%	1.7%	no record
AA 1999 American Flight history →	CLT 15:49	JAX 17:14	24%	8%	1.5%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON