Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2981 CLT 08:46 → LAS 10:32 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 750 CLT 14:25 → LAS 16:03 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2981 American Flight history →	CLT 08:46	LAS 10:32	14%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 2470 American Flight history →	CLT 10:38	LAS 12:17	15%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 596 American Flight history →	CLT 18:30	LAS 20:17	22%	8%	0.8%	69%
AA 750 American Flight history →	CLT 14:25	LAS 16:03	24%	7%	0.9%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 10:05 → LAS 11:27AA 2109	6h 46m	91%	76%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	55m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	6h 44m	90%	76%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711	6h 30m	90%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON