Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1995 at 08:57 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1995 CLT 08:57 → LAX 10:56 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1499 CLT 16:50 → LAX 18:55 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1995 American Flight history →	CLT 08:57	LAX 10:56	12%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 543 American	CLT 07:06	LAX 09:14	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2005 American	CLT 12:00	LAX 14:08	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 352 American Flight history →	CLT 13:21	LAX 15:18	16%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 1502 American Flight history →	CLT 14:33	LAX 16:30	18%	5%	0.7%	72%
AA 1499 American Flight history →	CLT 16:50	LAX 18:55	23%	6%	0.8%	63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 18m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	6h 54m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	53m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	7h 20m	95%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON