Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 5766 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–46%.

Safest bet that day YX 5766 CLT 07:01 → LGA 09:03 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3134 CLT 15:51 → LGA 17:52 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5766 Republic	CLT 07:01	LGA 09:03	10%	4%	1.7%	no record
AA 2036 American Flight history →	CLT 07:11	LGA 09:10	13%	4%	1.8%	82%
AA 1150 American Flight history →	CLT 09:20	LGA 11:15	18%	5%	1.3%	77%
YX 5719 Republic	CLT 12:27	LGA 14:28	19%	8%	1.4%	no record
AA 2268 American	CLT 11:47	LGA 13:46	22%	8%	1.5%	no record
AA 2927 American	CLT 13:13	LGA 15:12	28%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 1942 American Flight history →	CLT 15:17	LGA 17:15	39%	15%	1.5%	65%
AA 1060 American Flight history →	CLT 17:38	LGA 19:41	43%	16%	1.3%	62%
F9 3134 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 15:51	LGA 17:52	46%	23%	2.5%	56%
DL 5068 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:36	LGA 11:32	17%	9%	6.5%	83%
DL 5051 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:50	LGA 13:50	23%	7%	6.7%	77%
DL 5046 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:37	LGA 16:40	31%	17%	13.6%	69%
DL 5047 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 20:12	LGA 22:21	33%	18%	10.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON