Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2946 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2946 CLT 08:51 → MCI 10:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2965 CLT 17:41 → MCI 19:06 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2946 American	CLT 08:51	MCI 10:25	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3233 American	CLT 12:25	MCI 13:50	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2965 American	CLT 17:41	MCI 19:06	26%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON