Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2170 at 08:24 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2170 CLT 08:24 → MCO 10:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 1783 CLT 19:05 → MCO 21:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2170 American Flight history →	CLT 08:24	MCO 10:09	11%	2%	0.7%	78%
AA 1576 American	CLT 10:50	MCO 12:34	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 1759 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 09:32	MCO 11:20	13%	4%	1.1%	69%
AA 2117 American Flight history →	CLT 12:36	MCO 14:26	15%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 1611 American	CLT 14:11	MCO 15:55	20%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 612 American Flight history →	CLT 18:05	MCO 20:01	25%	8%	1.5%	54%
AA 3200 American Flight history →	CLT 20:15	MCO 22:00	25%	8%	1.2%	61%
AA 1682 American Flight history →	CLT 16:41	MCO 18:25	28%	9%	3.6%	64%
AA 1783 American Flight history →	CLT 19:05	MCO 21:00	28%	8%	1.2%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON