Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1226 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1226 Southwest	CLT 07:41	MDW 08:45	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2145 Southwest	CLT 19:26	MDW 20:32	23%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063	5h 35m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	4h 55m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	4h 56m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	CLT 09:42 → DTW 11:30DL 1639	55m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	4h 04m	90%	72%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor	4h 14m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	3h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	7h 49m	99%	58%
Delta Details →	CLT 13:17 → DTW 15:00DL 2684	3h 07m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	6h 12m	99%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON