Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1790 at 10:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1790 CLT 10:15 → MEM 11:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest OH 5398 CLT 16:20 → MEM 17:05 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1790 American Flight history →	CLT 10:15	MEM 11:09	10%	3%	0.7%	96%
AA 2852 American	CLT 13:39	MEM 14:33	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1641 American Flight history →	CLT 20:06	MEM 20:59	20%	6%	0.7%	72%
OH 5398 PSA	CLT 16:20	MEM 17:05	22%	6%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON