Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1165 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1165 CLT 05:15 → MIA 07:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 400 CLT 18:28 → MIA 20:34 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1165 American Flight history →	CLT 05:15	MIA 07:20	6%	2%	0.9%	92%
AA 770 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	MIA 09:12	9%	2%	0.9%	83%
AA 969 American Flight history →	CLT 11:02	MIA 13:11	14%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 3184 American Flight history →	CLT 09:02	MIA 11:08	15%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 1198 American	CLT 13:29	MIA 15:36	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 3699 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 11:35	MIA 13:44	23%	7%	1.7%	66%
AA 565 American	CLT 19:57	MIA 22:04	29%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 3011 American	CLT 16:47	MIA 19:00	29%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 400 American Flight history →	CLT 18:28	MIA 20:34	33%	9%	1.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON