Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2491 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2491 CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2176 CLT 19:13 → MSP 21:03 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2491 Delta Flight history →	CLT 06:20	MSP 07:59	4%	2%	0.6%	93%
AA 2972 American	CLT 08:42	MSP 10:33	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1912 Delta	CLT 11:33	MSP 13:18	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2819 Delta Flight history →	CLT 14:57	MSP 16:44	11%	4%	0.6%	75%
AA 1671 American	CLT 12:29	MSP 14:23	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2820 Delta Flight history →	CLT 19:14	MSP 21:00	13%	6%	0.6%	79%
AA 2176 American Flight history →	CLT 19:13	MSP 21:03	20%	7%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON