Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2287 at 08:46 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2287 CLT 08:46 → MSY 09:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 608 CLT 20:13 → MSY 21:16 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2287 American Flight history →	CLT 08:46	MSY 09:58	11%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 2030 American	CLT 12:52	MSY 13:55	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2615 American Flight history →	CLT 16:06	MSY 17:09	22%	6%	0.7%	79%
AA 608 American Flight history →	CLT 20:13	MSY 21:16	28%	9%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON