Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OH 5290 at 08:43 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day OH 5290 CLT 08:43 → MYR 09:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2943 CLT 15:51 → MYR 17:01 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5290 PSA	CLT 08:43	MYR 09:49	10%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 2431 American Flight history →	CLT 10:13	MYR 11:23	12%	3%	0.7%	100%worse than usual
OH 5188 PSA	CLT 12:17	MYR 13:23	13%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 1085 American Flight history →	CLT 20:03	MYR 21:13	22%	8%	0.9%	70%
AA 1417 American Flight history →	CLT 17:41	MYR 18:52	23%	8%	0.9%	72%
AA 2943 American Flight history →	CLT 15:51	MYR 17:01	23%	7%	0.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON