tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 8h 08m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678 1h 51m Phoenix PHX 10:56 → ONT 12:29AA 2661 7h 48m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:26 → DFW 09:14AA 1005 3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:15 → ONT 13:42AA 2635 9h 16m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → ONT 12:10AA 2956 9h 25m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 11m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588 4h 00m Phoenix PHX 16:56 → ONT 18:26AA 1666 9h 49m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 58m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 07m 90% 77%
FrontierDetails → CLT 12:16 → IAH 13:56F9 2395 2h 17m Houston IAH 16:13 → ONT 17:59F9 3131 8h 43m 93% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON