Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1304 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1304 CLT 06:45 → ORD 08:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2488 CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1304 United Flight history →	CLT 06:45	ORD 08:01	8%	3%	1.0%	85%
AA 2843 American Flight history →	CLT 07:46	ORD 09:02	9%	3%	1.4%	86%
AA 2908 American Flight history →	CLT 11:01	ORD 12:19	11%	4%	1.3%	90%
AA 1038 American Flight history →	CLT 09:42	ORD 11:00	12%	3%	1.2%	83%
UA 3442 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 13:06	ORD 14:30	14%	5%	1.4%	74%
AA 2530 American Flight history →	CLT 13:01	ORD 14:16	18%	6%	1.4%	67%
UA 3491 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 15:02	ORD 16:20	20%	6%	1.6%	95%worse than usual
AA 536 American Flight history →	CLT 16:16	ORD 17:39	21%	9%	1.5%	68%
AA 2423 American	CLT 14:56	ORD 16:08	23%	7%	1.5%	no record
YX 3421 Republic	CLT 17:33	ORD 18:51	26%	7%	1.9%	no record
AA 2488 American Flight history →	CLT 18:26	ORD 19:51	28%	9%	1.5%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON