Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2072 at 08:14 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2072 CLT 08:14 → ORF 09:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 5622 CLT 20:24 → ORF 21:45 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2072 American Flight history →	CLT 08:14	ORF 09:40	10%	3%	0.9%	82%
AA 2911 American Flight history →	CLT 12:44	ORF 14:10	17%	5%	0.9%	78%
AA 1323 American Flight history →	CLT 13:57	ORF 15:23	17%	4%	0.9%	92%
AA 2651 American	CLT 15:17	ORF 16:43	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2519 American Flight history →	CLT 17:27	ORF 18:54	23%	6%	1.1%	46%
AA 5622 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:24	ORF 21:45	24%	7%	1.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON