Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1913 American	CLT 15:26	PDX 17:53	19%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:41DL 1661	9h 21m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:27DL 539	7h 57m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 36m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	9h 37m	100%	87%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 00m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	9h 33m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:57 → MSP 16:44DL 2819	1h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151	8h 18m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	7h 57m	96%	86%
United Details →	CLT 15:02 → ORD 16:20UA 3491 · flown by Republic	3h 52m Chicago	ORD 20:12 → PDX 22:47UA 2243	10h 45m	100%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON