Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1838 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1838 CLT 05:54 → PHL 07:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest F9 1384 CLT 14:46 → PHL 16:39 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1838 American Flight history →	CLT 05:54	PHL 07:48	7%	3%	1.1%	70%
AA 3325 American	CLT 08:14	PHL 10:08	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 2565 American	CLT 09:42	PHL 11:35	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2498 American Flight history →	CLT 11:00	PHL 12:43	13%	5%	0.9%	79%
AA 2573 American Flight history →	CLT 13:02	PHL 14:50	17%	6%	0.9%	76%
AA 423 American Flight history →	CLT 18:14	PHL 20:15	20%	8%	0.9%	66%
AA 864 American Flight history →	CLT 16:53	PHL 18:46	22%	8%	0.8%	70%
F9 1384 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 14:46	PHL 16:39	25%	12%	1.3%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON