Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1678 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1678 CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1274 CLT 18:22 → PHX 19:58 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1678 American Flight history →	CLT 07:41	PHX 09:05	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 1986 American Flight history →	CLT 09:41	PHX 11:04	11%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 588 American Flight history →	CLT 11:37	PHX 12:56	12%	4%	0.7%	87%
AA 1711 American Flight history →	CLT 14:44	PHX 16:16	15%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 1044 American Flight history →	CLT 13:08	PHX 14:43	15%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 3046 American Flight history →	CLT 15:38	PHX 17:14	18%	6%	0.7%	82%
AA 1274 American	CLT 18:22	PHX 19:58	23%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON