Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2310 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2310 CLT 08:05 → PIT 09:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2307 CLT 15:53 → PIT 17:28 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2310 American Flight history →	CLT 08:05	PIT 09:30	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 1736 American	CLT 12:32	PIT 14:07	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2676 American Flight history →	CLT 19:21	PIT 20:57	20%	8%	0.8%	74%
AA 2307 American Flight history →	CLT 15:53	PIT 17:28	20%	7%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON