Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2476 at 10:45 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day


AA 2476 American	CLT 10:45	PNS 11:32	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
OH 5038 PSA	CLT 16:23	PNS 17:04	25%	9%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → PNS 08:17DL 3103	3h 47m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → PNS 12:47DL 1640	5h 46m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	CLT 11:56 → ATL 13:10DL 3190	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	6h 07m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 18:54 → PNS 19:14DL 3021	5h 52m	98%	87%
American Details →	CLT 07:26 → DFW 09:14AA 1005	1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:04 → PNS 13:03AA 2863	6h 37m	100%	81%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	54m Denver	DEN 11:21 → PNS 15:21UA 1891	7h 41m	92%	81%
Frontier Details →	CLT 09:31 → MCO 11:20F9 1759	1h 14m Orlando	MCO 12:34 → PNS 13:22F9 4661	4h 51m	91%	63%
American Details →	CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839	3h 08m Washington	DCA 19:21 → PNS 21:00AA 5544 · flown by PSA	7h 26m	93%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON