Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1569 CLT 08:21 → PVD 10:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2318 CLT 19:35 → PVD 21:54 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1569 American	CLT 08:21	PVD 10:38	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 2679 American	CLT 13:40	PVD 15:58	12%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2338 American Flight history →	CLT 16:20	PVD 18:30	17%	7%	0.8%	76%
AA 2318 American Flight history →	CLT 19:35	PVD 21:54	17%	6%	0.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON