Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OH 5211 at 11:03, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5211 PSA	CLT 11:03	RAP 12:26	9%	3%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rapid City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 09:33 → RAP 10:18DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest	5h 58m	98%	89%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	2h 58m Denver	DEN 13:25 → RAP 14:46UA 5556 · flown by SkyWest	8h 06m	98%	86%
American Details →	CLT 11:26 → DFW 13:16AA 2747	1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:14 → RAP 16:42AA 3532 · flown by Envoy	7h 16m	96%	85%
United Details →	CLT 06:45 → ORD 08:01UA 1304	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 09:07 → RAP 10:37UA 2050	5h 52m	93%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON