Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1768 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1768 CLT 08:50 → RDU 09:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1904 CLT 17:46 → RDU 18:53 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1768 American	CLT 08:50	RDU 09:59	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2688 American Flight history →	CLT 10:21	RDU 11:28	12%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1897 American Flight history →	CLT 12:06	RDU 13:13	15%	5%	0.6%	86%
AA 2704 American Flight history →	CLT 14:01	RDU 15:10	20%	7%	0.6%	74%
AA 1894 American Flight history →	CLT 15:59	RDU 17:06	25%	9%	0.6%	77%
AA 3178 American Flight history →	CLT 20:12	RDU 21:21	26%	8%	0.6%	72%
AA 1904 American Flight history →	CLT 17:46	RDU 18:53	26%	8%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON