Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1775 at 08:19 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1775 CLT 08:19 → RIC 09:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1909 CLT 17:26 → RIC 18:50 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1775 American	CLT 08:19	RIC 09:42	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5119 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 10:29	RIC 11:48	8%	3%	0.8%	100%
OH 5144 PSA	CLT 12:57	RIC 14:16	12%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5505 PSA	CLT 14:03	RIC 15:22	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1757 American	CLT 15:16	RIC 16:39	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2239 American	CLT 20:56	RIC 22:21	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1909 American Flight history →	CLT 17:26	RIC 18:50	22%	8%	0.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON