Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2100 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2100 CLT 07:06 → SAN 09:06 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 562 CLT 17:21 → SAN 19:18 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2100 American	CLT 07:06	SAN 09:06	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 466 American Flight history →	CLT 11:15	SAN 13:05	19%	6%	0.8%	80%
AA 562 American Flight history →	CLT 17:21	SAN 19:18	34%	8%	0.8%	79%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → SAN 09:26DL 725	6h 56m	99%	85%
American Details →	CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588	1h 23m Phoenix	PHX 14:19 → SAN 15:45AA 1951	7h 08m	93%	72%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	48m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	7h 01m	85%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON