Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5281 CLT 08:33 → SAV 09:42 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1311 CLT 15:30 → SAV 16:45 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5281 PSA	CLT 08:33	SAV 09:42	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
OH 5172 PSA	CLT 10:25	SAV 11:34	12%	3%	1.3%	no record
OH 5677 PSA	CLT 12:36	SAV 13:45	15%	3%	1.3%	no record
OH 5553 PSA	CLT 14:25	SAV 15:34	16%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 5382 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 19:15	SAV 20:32	17%	7%	1.4%	69%
AA 5563 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:10	SAV 19:24	17%	6%	1.5%	85%
AA 1311 American	CLT 15:30	SAV 16:45	20%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 5910 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:10	SAV 10:31	17%	7%	0.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON