Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5145 CLT 10:27 → SDF 11:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2923 CLT 17:47 → SDF 19:17 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5145 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 10:27	SDF 11:52	11%	3%	0.9%	86%
OH 5296 PSA	CLT 12:46	SDF 14:11	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1359 American	CLT 15:52	SDF 17:23	18%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2923 American	CLT 17:47	SDF 19:17	19%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON