Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2407 at 08:47 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 2407 CLT 08:47 → SEA 11:41 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 751 CLT 17:40 → SEA 20:25 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2407 American Flight history →	CLT 08:47	SEA 11:41	15%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 506 American Flight history →	CLT 12:28	SEA 15:21	17%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 1833 American	CLT 16:01	SEA 18:54	23%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 751 American Flight history →	CLT 17:40	SEA 20:25	29%	7%	0.7%	63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 39m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	59m Atlanta	ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54DL 444	7h 24m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	53m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → SEA 10:34DL 734	7h 34m	95%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON