Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 19–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2758 CLT 08:31 → SFO 10:51 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2410 CLT 17:41 → SFO 20:01 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2758 American	CLT 08:31	SFO 10:51	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1489 American	CLT 12:11	SFO 14:30	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2069 American Flight history →	CLT 15:41	SFO 18:01	25%	10%	0.7%	61%
AA 2410 American Flight history →	CLT 17:41	SFO 20:01	28%	11%	0.8%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 50m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	48m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → SFO 10:27DL 361	7h 27m	93%	75%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	54m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 24m	89%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON