tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 783 at 11:03, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 783 American Flight history → CLT 11:03 SJU 14:50 15% 4% 0.8% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 08:12 → SJU 11:52DL 1930 6h 22m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 38m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 8h 07m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:05 → MIA 09:12AA 770 2h 15m Miami MIA 11:27 → SJU 14:21AA 1613 7h 16m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → CLT 11:48 → IAH 13:34UA 6236 · flown by Mesa 1h 29m Houston IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701 8h 50m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:15 → MIA 07:20AA 1165 54m Miami MIA 08:14 → SJU 10:58AA 1341 5h 43m 91% 80%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:54 → PHL 07:48AA 1838 1h 55m Philadelphia PHL 09:43 → SJU 13:56AA 614 8h 02m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → CLT 09:02 → MIA 11:08AA 3184 2h 04m Miami MIA 13:12 → SJU 16:04AA 967 7h 02m 99% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON