Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:01, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1895 American	CLT 10:14	SLC 12:29	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 2070 Delta Flight history →	CLT 18:10	SLC 20:29	15%	5%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	6h 44m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	7h 49m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	7h 40m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	6h 59m	98%	84%
American Details →	CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588	3h 02m Phoenix	PHX 15:58 → SLC 18:47AA 2907	9h 10m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:57 → MSP 16:44DL 2819	1h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	7h 10m	93%	83%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 13m Denver	DEN 13:40 → SLC 15:13UA 1840	8h 33m	99%	83%
American Details →	CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678	1h 03m Phoenix	PHX 10:08 → SLC 12:55AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	7h 14m	92%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908	47m Chicago	ORD 13:06 → SLC 15:37AA 1873	6h 36m	75%	55%
American Details →	CLT 16:53 → PHL 18:46AA 864	51m Philadelphia	PHL 19:37 → SLC 22:31AA 2630	7h 38m	72%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON