tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 30m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 49m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 3h 08m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662 9h 30m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:39 → SMF 10:36AA 2081 7h 51m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → SMF 19:53DL 743 8h 31m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:26 → DFW 09:14AA 1005 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:46 → SMF 13:31AA 2078 9h 05m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:45 → ORD 08:01UA 1304 1h 03m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 8h 06m 92% 81%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843 2h 52m Chicago ORD 11:54 → SMF 14:22AA 1906 9h 36m 100% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON