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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:01, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 358 American Flight history → CLT 18:00 SNA 20:06 22% 5% 0.8% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986 3h 18m Phoenix PHX 14:22 → SNA 15:54AA 2463 9h 13m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 2h 58m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 9h 17m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:26 → DFW 09:14AA 1005 3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:21 → SNA 13:48AA 2465 9h 22m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 3h 01m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 34m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405 1h 43m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 05m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:35 → SNA 11:01AA 1939 8h 16m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678 2h 09m Phoenix PHX 11:14 → SNA 12:53AA 1656 8h 12m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 9h 41m 100% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON