Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1452 American Flight history →	CLT 10:18	SRQ 12:14	22%	8%	2.7%	75%
AA 2604 American Flight history →	CLT 19:29	SRQ 21:25	26%	8%	3.2%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196	4h 22m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 10:49 → SRQ 12:26DL 3104	4h 25m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	CLT 11:56 → ATL 13:10DL 3190	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	5h 21m	99%	84%
United Details →	CLT 06:45 → ORD 08:01UA 1304	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	8h 27m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON