Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2497 at 08:47 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2497 CLT 08:47 → STL 09:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2686 CLT 17:02 → STL 18:04 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2497 American Flight history →	CLT 08:47	STL 09:50	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
WN 1241 Southwest	CLT 10:41	STL 11:35	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3096 American Flight history →	CLT 12:05	STL 13:04	15%	4%	0.7%	68%
AA 2686 American Flight history →	CLT 17:02	STL 18:04	22%	6%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON