Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1975 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1975 CLT 08:31 → TPA 10:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3051 CLT 17:42 → TPA 19:38 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1975 American	CLT 08:31	TPA 10:27	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 436 American Flight history →	CLT 10:25	TPA 12:20	12%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 2915 American Flight history →	CLT 12:27	TPA 14:21	19%	5%	1.0%	80%
AA 1982 American	CLT 13:56	TPA 15:51	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 545 American	CLT 15:36	TPA 17:30	25%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 2022 American Flight history →	CLT 20:16	TPA 21:59	26%	7%	0.8%	68%
AA 3051 American	CLT 17:42	TPA 19:38	28%	7%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON