Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1685 at 09:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1685 CMH 09:01 → ATL 10:41 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2539 CMH 19:40 → ATL 21:29 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1685 Southwest	CMH 09:01	ATL 10:41	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2469 Delta Flight history →	CMH 06:00	ATL 07:35	4%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 1479 Delta Flight history →	CMH 10:00	ATL 11:35	4%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2909 Delta Flight history →	CMH 07:05	ATL 08:42	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 3165 Delta Flight history →	CMH 08:11	ATL 09:45	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 1522 Delta Flight history →	CMH 12:48	ATL 14:26	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 1750 Delta Flight history →	CMH 14:43	ATL 16:22	7%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 2892 Delta Flight history →	CMH 17:07	ATL 18:44	8%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2786 Delta Flight history →	CMH 20:08	ATL 22:00	9%	4%	0.6%	75%
F9 2539 Frontier Flight history →	CMH 19:40	ATL 21:29	31%	10%	0.9%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON