tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1232 Southwest CMH 07:01 BNA 07:29 3% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 4975 Southwest CMH 13:21 BNA 13:49 8% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 5h 09m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 25m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → CMH 06:09 → CLT 07:39AA 3206 2h 56m Charlotte CLT 10:35 → BNA 11:07AA 1295 5h 58m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:30UA 3430 · flown by Republic 1h 00m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 4h 29m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → CMH 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 1479 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 6h 26m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CMH 17:07 → ATL 18:44DL 2892 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002 5h 37m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic 3h 03m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 5h 48m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → CMH 07:13 → ORD 07:41UA 466 2h 56m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 6h 16m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CMH 10:24 → ORD 10:46AA 3414 · flown by Envoy 46m Chicago ORD 11:32 → BNA 13:16AA 2362 3h 52m 67% 57%
AmericanDetails → CMH 17:33 → LGA 19:33AA 4791 · flown by Republic 47m New York LGA 20:20 → BNA 21:47AA 980 5h 14m 65% 45%
DeltaDetails → CMH 14:25 → LGA 16:14DL 4649 · flown by Endeavor 1h 13m New York LGA 17:27 → BNA 19:19DL 5002 · flown by Endeavor 5h 56m 71% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON