Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3206 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 3206 CMH 06:09 → CLT 07:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1120 CMH 18:41 → CLT 20:11 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3206 American Flight history →	CMH 06:09	CLT 07:39	7%	3%	0.8%	94%
AA 3217 American Flight history →	CMH 08:03	CLT 09:40	12%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 2180 American	CMH 12:43	CLT 14:15	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2236 American	CMH 14:57	CLT 16:34	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1120 American	CMH 18:41	CLT 20:11	18%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON