Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4417 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4417 Southwest	CMH 06:16	DAL 07:48	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 952 Southwest	CMH 19:11	DAL 20:45	21%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 24m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	CMH 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 1479	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	6h 03m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	CMH 17:07 → ATL 18:44DL 2892	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 18m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CMH 12:48 → ATL 14:26DL 1522	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 06m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON